Forecast: SLR growth rate to taper off

LAS VEGAS--2007 was a big growth year for digital SLRs, but some of the sales surge will moderate, according to a new study by the Camera and Imaging Products Association.

SLR cameras are bulky and expensive, but they're also responsive, work better in dim conditions, and are flexible because photographers can change the lens attached. The digital SLR market grew 142 percent to 7.5 million units worldwide from 2006 to 2007, CIPA said Tuesday.

In contrast, SLR growth rates will diminish to 122 percent this year and 109 percent in 2010, the CIPA forecast predicted. That corresponds to digital SLR shipments of 9.1 million and 11.2 million units, respectively.

It's been tough forecasting camera shipments because purchasing patterns have changed, so analysts have had to push back the year camera shipments are expected to peak. The old days of one camera per family are fading, replaced by the one camera per family member era. And some people buy multiple cameras for different jobs--tossing into a purse, traveling, or photographing their child's sports.

The compact camera market also will grow, CIPA said, but it's a significant notch below SLR rates. It grew 126 percent to 92.9 million units in 2007, should grow 111 percent to 103.8 million this year, and 105 percent to 115.3 million in 2010.

The total digital camera market topped 100 million for the first time in 2007--barely--with sales of 100.4 million. Expect 111.9 million for 2008 and 126.5 million in 2010.

The CIPA findings made the rounds here at the Photo Marketing Association trade show, where camera makers salivate over the prospect of millions of high-end SLRs being sold. Even if growth rates are tapering off, they're still positive, and the fact that SLRs today typically cost at least $700 means serious money is on the table.

CIPA also shared statistics for SLR lenses, and there, too, growth rates are slowing. A total of 12.5 million were sold in 2007, a number that should jump to 14.7 million this year and 17.4 million in 2010.